LigLabHow will the league end?
We played it out 10,000 times.
The Consensus bot computes score probabilities for every remaining match, and the rest of the season is played out 10,000 times with them. If a team won the title in 6,200 of 10,000 seasons, its title probability is 62%. Updated automatically every day. Loading…
Probability table
Sorted by average rank across the simulations. “Expected” = average end-of-season points over the 10,000 seasons (Süper Lig only). “–” means below one in a thousand. Points-deduction penalties are not taken into account.
How reliable is it?
We tested the method on 14 seasons of England, Spain and Italy: it clearly beat the baseline that only looks at the league table, in every league and at every point of the season; of the teams it gave an 84% chance of winning the title, 85% won it. The rules were written before the test (pre-registration).
The same simulation runs for the Bundesliga, but the verification above was done on England, Spain and Italy. There is no separate test for the Bundesliga yet.
In all three Süper Lig seasons it beat the baseline, but the sample was small, so it was not counted as conclusive. At the end of this season it will be tested once more with the same method as the predictions on this page; whatever the result, it will be written here.